Economic Update

Updated Oct 21, 2026

The U.S. economy this week

75 indicators from official sources, refreshed every weekday evening.

New = released in the past 7 days

Economy score
+7Mixed
+2 ptsvs last monthNo changevs 3 months ago+6 ptsvs a year ago

A weighted read of every sector, from −100 (stressed) to +100 (strong). How it works

Economy score over time
The same formula applied to every month since 1990.

Shaded: U.S. recessions (NBER business-cycle dates)

Inflation

Producer, consumer, and PCE prices, with and without food and energy.

Jobs

Payroll growth from BLS and ADP, wages, and weekly jobless claims.

Jobs report revisions
Each jobs report adds a new month and revises the two before it. Jobs added in the month, in thousands.

Nonfarm payrolls (monthly change) · released Oct 2, 2026

MonthPreviouslyNowRevision
Sep 2026First report+29K—
Aug 2026+162K+133K−29K
Jul 2026+21K−10K−31K

ADP private payrolls (monthly change) · released Sep 30, 2026

MonthPreviouslyNowRevision
Sep 2026First report+90K—
Aug 2026+38K+36K−2K
Jul 2026+46K+44K−2K

Employment

Unemployment, labor force participation, and job openings (JOLTS).

Federal Reserve

The Fed's policy rate: the overnight rate banks charge each other, its main tool against inflation.

Federal funds target range
3.75–4.00%

GDP

Economic output, the Atlanta Fed nowcast, and federal debt.

Consumer

Sentiment, spending, saving, and credit card stress.

Recession risk

Early-warning signs that have flagged past recessions: the Sahm rule and the yield curve. Low risk means none are flashing.

Bonds & mortgages

Treasury yields, the yield curve, and mortgage rates.

Housing

Construction, new and existing home sales, prices, and supply.

Manufacturing

Industrial output and factory jobs.

Energy

Oil prices, fuel at the pump, and the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.