The same numbers as the dashboard, written up whiteboard-style. Arrows show the change since the prior release: green is good news, red is bad.

22 Oct 2026

Economic Update

Economy score

+7 Mixed

Jobs

30 Sep

ADP +90K (Sep)

BLS +29K (Sep, first report)released 2 Oct

BLS +133K (Aug revised −29K)

BLS −10K (Jul revised −31K)

Jobless claims 199K/week

Employment

Sep

4.2% unemployment |61.8% labor force participation

{

7.11M unemployed

5.79M not in labor force, want a job

4.50M part time, want full time

}

12.90M want a job

17.40M want a job or more hours

27.1% of unemployed out of work 27+ weeks

JOLTS

29 Sep

7.08M open jobs · 1.81 job seekers per opening

5.19M hires · 5.07M separations (1.64M layoffs)

Inflation

Sep

PPI6.3%PPI core5.0%

CPI3.7%CPI core2.6%

PCE3.4%PCE core3.0%

}

Fed target: 2%

(measured on PCE)

GDP

30 Sep

Q1 2026 2.5%Q2 2026 2.2%Q3 (GDPNow) 3.5%

Fed

17 Sep

Target range 3.75–4.00%Tightening

Consumer

Sep

MoMYoY

Consumer sentiment (48.1)−7.0%−12.7%

Current conditions (50.9)−1.9%−15.7%

Expectations (46.3)−10.1%−10.4%

Bonds

19 Oct

10-year Treasury 5.15%

Mortgages

15 Oct

7.40% on a 30-year (2.30 pp above the 10-year)

vs 6.30% a year ago: +$73/month per $100K borrowed

Housing

Sep

Existing: 3.99M sales/yr · median $417,500 · 1.60M for sale

New: 8.5 mo supply · median $393,700 · 684K sold/yr

Starts 1,221K · permits 1,400K · completions 1,192K

Manufacturing

16 Oct

Industrial production 2.2% over 12 months · factory jobs +9K

Energy

16 Oct

Strategic reserve 282.7M bbl · commercial 412.5M bbl

Diesel $6.28 · gas $4.28 · WTI $107.89 · Brent $115.22

Recession risk

Sep

Sahm rule 0.00 pp (recession signal at 0.50) · 10y minus 3m spread 0.86 ppLow risk